Hazard curve evaluation for forest fire smoke effects on air-cooling decay heat removal systems

Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa

Proceedings of International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis (PSA 2017) (USB Flash Drive), p.1334 - 1342, 2017/09

This study evaluates a hazard curve of smoke effects generated by a forest fire by applying a new method using a logic tree which consists of variable parameters on a forest fire, weather conditions, types of vegetation and topography, and simulation conditions. A response surface of the smoke spatial density was evaluated using two simulation codes: FARSITE for forest fire propagation and ALOFT-FT for smoke transportation. It is followed by a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the hazard curve representing the annual exceedance frequency of the total amount of the smoke captured on air filters. The evaluated hazard curve is about 110 per year for 3.5 kg/m/(m/s).